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KMID : 0359320090490040329
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Korean Journal of Veterinary Research
2009 Volume.49 No. 4 p.329 ~ p.334
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Partial Budget Modeling of Economic Losses of Aujeszky`s Disease
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Pak Son-Il
Park Choi-Kyu
Moon Oun-Kyong
Yoon Ha-Chung
Lee Byeong-Yong
Lee Sang-Jin
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Abstract
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Aujeszky`s disease (AD) is a respiratory, infectious viral illness associated with high mortality, especially in neonatal piglets and has frequently been considered an economically important disease in many endemic countries. Although AD is still occurring in a geographically defined region in Korea, little attention has been paid to the economics of AD. In this study, partial budget technique was used to develop a simulation model to measure financial losses following the disease epidemic in a swine operation utilizing stochastic or deterministic parameters from the literatures and the index case herd of AD occurred in 2005, where available and applicable. For the infected case herd with a 12500-pig, the total economic loss for this operation was estimated to be about 199 million Korean won (95% confidence interval [CI] 148,645,000-250,741,000). Given net loss due to death of a pig at sow level was 119,000 won, total loss for the case herd with 1200 sows accounted for 143 million won (95% CI 92,599,000-193,729,000). The net loss of the death of one pig at growing and fattening level resulted in loss of 46,000 won (95% CI 40,000-53,000) and 126,000 won (95% CI 122,000-131,000), respectively. Taking into account for the number of pigs raised in the case herd, total loss amounted to 8 million won (95% CI 7,167,000-9,347,000) and 12 million won (95% CI 11,959,000-12,891,000), for growers and fatteners, respectively, assuming 63% of saved feed intake when a pig dies halfway through the respective period. Under the model`s assumptions, suckling pig mortality was the major factors of loss in estimating the economic consequences (approximately 71.8% of the total loss). The high economic losses of a herd infected with AD suggest that the effective and region-specific control measures should be implemented in disease endemic foci.
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KEYWORD
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Aujeszky`s disease, economics, partial-budget model
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